China Targets Northern Philippine Province for Influence Operations
Jennifer Chang, Exovera China Research Analyst
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Chinese influence operations have targeted the local government of a northern Philippine province that lies strategically close to Taiwan and hosts a growing U.S. military presence that could swiftly respond to a Taiwan contingency. Cagayan Province, one of the closer Philippine provinces to China, sits along a major maritime shipping route, and has become a strategic venue for U.S.-China competition in the Philippines. As China-Philippine relations at the national government level have soured, Chinese inroads into local governments have provided an alternative and important source of political support for Beijing amid growing security tensions between the two neighbors.
- Chinese influence operations targeting Cagayan include economic projects, humanitarian aid, leadership visits, and cultivation of relationships with local officials.
- Chinese officials have courted Cagayan’s pro-China Governor Manuel Mamba, who seeks financial assistance from Beijing to implement economic development objectives for his province.
- Governor Mamba is a visible representative of the pro-China faction in Filipino domestic politics, galvanizing local political opposition to the central government’s decision to expand a defense agreement with the United States.
Since coming to power in June 2022, Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has taken a more confrontational stance against China, implementing a sharp reversal of his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte’s pro-China policies and strengthening military ties with the United States. In February 2023, the U.S. military obtained the right to use four new bases in the Philippines, including two sites in Cagayan Province (Lal-lo Airport and Naval Base Camilo Osias in Santa Ana; the latter lies 255 miles south of Taiwan), in addition to the five existing sites already provided to U.S. troops under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) signed in 2014.
Media Highlight: “Cagayan Is Not a ‘Front Line’ but at the Forefront of Cooperation”
A Global Times editorial in May 2024 said Cagayan Province stands at the “forefront of cooperation” between China and the Philippines. During past visits to China, Cagayan Governor Manuel Mamba expressed his desire to collaborate with China in agriculture, tourism, and other economic sectors. Mamba discussed the promotion of cultural exchanges and sister city friendships between the two sides, as well as reopening the Aparri Port in Cagayan Province with Chinese assistance. A series of China-Philippines projects are taking root in Cagayan, including a new irrigation project completed by the China CAMC Engineering Co., Ltd., that has begun operations. By contrast, the United States regards Cagayan Province as a “front line” for implementing its Indo-Pacific strategy, in support of a potential U.S. intervention in a Taiwan contingency and U.S. containment of China, according to the editorial.
Media Highlight: “Philippine Cagayan Province Governor Replies to The Paper: We Welcome Chinese Investment and More Exchanges at the Local Government Level”
During his February 2024 visit to China, Governor Mamba said Cagayan Province has a “deep connection with China.” Mamba also called China an “important economic partner” that contributes to his province’s economic development, agriculture, tourism, and other fields. Mamba told Chinese reporters that increased hostilities in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait might affect Cagayan, reiterating his opposition to foreign forces engaging in “excessive activities” in his province, in reference to the deployment of U.S. military forces to Cagayan. Mamba, who is building a special economic zone and has encouraged Chinese companies to invest in his province, expressed concern that the stationing of U.S. troops in Cagayan might curtail Chinese investment in his province.
Exovera Commentary:
Chinese influence operations in the Philippines have reached the local government level. Geographically close to China, the province has traditionally been friendly towards China – even if the national government was not. Cagayan has historically been the earliest region of the Philippines to interact with China, long before the independence of the Philippines, engaging in pre-colonial trade. Under the Duterte administration, China-Philippine economic and trade cooperation brought tangible economic benefits to Cagayan Province, according to Governor Mamba. The province received a Chinese investment pledge of 26.2 billion yuan (USD 3.5 billion) at an informal meeting of the Belt and Road International Summit Forum in 2019. The Chinese media have portrayed Cagayan Province as the “front line” of economic, trade, and cultural exchanges between China and the Philippines.
More recently, the northern province has taken on enhanced significance for Beijing due to the downturn in bilateral relations under Marcos Jr., who has been more critical than his predecessor of Chinese military actions in the disputed South China Sea. Also, at a time when China’s Belt and Road Initiative projects have faltered due to deals reached under Duterte canceled by Marcos Jr., Chinese economic projects have made a bigger splash at the local level, in areas such as Cagayan.
China attaches great importance to Cagayan, and Chinese officials visited the province at least four times in 2023 to strengthen bilateral economic and trade ties. From November 28 to December 1, 2023, Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian (黄溪连) visited the town of Santa Ana, where Naval Base Camilo Osias is located, and promised to help find Chinese investors to finance a new international airport and rehabilitate the port of Aparri, where Mamba wants to build a seaport. China has also provided humanitarian aid in the wake of typhoons that have struck the province, as well as funded the construction of kindergarten classrooms in the municipality of Tuao, Mamba’s hometown.
Indeed, Cagayan has become a microcosm of the struggle between the pro-U.S. and pro-China factions in Filipino domestic politics. Governor Mamba has become a visible representative of the pro-China faction in the Philippines. He is a fierce opponent of the central government’s foreign policy and decision to allow more U.S. troops into the Philippines, particularly the deployment of U.S. troops to Cagayan Province. Mamba has said EDCA developments in his province are meant “for war,” whereas his government’s cooperation with China centers around economic projects. He also downplayed bilateral tensions in the South China Sea, dismissing Chinese harassment of Philippine vessels as “nothing.” According to Chinese media reports in December 2023, Mamba said the U.S. presence in local areas has been weak and not brought much benefit to Cagayan Province.
Rather than letting his province be pushed to the front line of the U.S.-China conflict, Mamba wants Cagayan to become an international port and industrial and agricultural center, with China playing a key role. Mamba has promoted the Cagayan Development Agenda (Caganda 2025), which envisions a partnership with countries such as China to create sustainable people-centered economic development in the province. Mamba said, “Cagayan Province is willing to become the gateway and bridge for exchanges and cooperation between the two countries.”
Mamba has been a frequent traveler to China to build connections with central and local government officials to support his development goals. In February 2024, Mamba met with China’s Assistant Foreign Minister Nong Rong (农融) at the opening ceremony of the 2024 China-ASEAN Year of People-to-People Exchange (中国—东盟人文交流年) in Fuzhou. In October 2024, he took a delegation to Shanghai to meet with Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng (龚正). In recognition of his contributions to strengthening ties with China, Mamba was conferred the 2024 “Award for Promoting Philippines-China Understanding” by the nonprofit Association for Philippines-China Understanding and Chinese Embassy in Manila.
Cagayan Province will continue to play an outsized role in Chinese influence operations targeting the Philippines. Beijing is likely to continue to cultivate relationships with pro-China local politicians such as Governor Mamba and other Filipino political elites to cultivate public opinion in favor of Chinese interests. By enhancing Chinese economic investments in Cagayan, Beijing seeks to raise the costs of an expanded U.S. military presence in the region and drive a wedge in the U.S.-Philippine alliance, preventing the use of Cagayan Province as a front line of U.S.-Philippine security cooperation in a Taiwan contingency.
